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Social Forecasting / Servizi di Anticipazione

ITALIANO: Cos’è il social forecasting o anticipazione sociale?, FuturAbles, 18 gennaio 2015


Microsoft Research has teamed up with the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology to develop software that can predict events like outbreaks of disease or violence by mining data from old news and the web. The project, if successful, will result into a tool that would provide information that is more than just educated guesses or intuition. The team consisting of Eric Horvitz from Microsoft Research and Kira Radinsky from Technion-Israel Institute tested the program with articles from New York Times spanning over 20 years from 1986-2007.

Researchers Mine Old News To Predict Future Events

The new source of power is not money in the hands of a few, but information in the hands of many.

John Naisbitt (pioneer of social forecasting)

If people define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.

If people define future scenarios as real, they are real in their consequences.

Information is a renewable and self-generating resource. Knowledge is the result of well thought-out content analysis.

An information society is oriented to the future and, in such a society, knowledge professionals with a capacity for forecasting and anticipation are much sought-after.

Community management in social media marketing will be the cornerstone of micro and macro decision-making processes of successful business/administrative/social enterprises, along with a detailed social forecasting (crowdsourcing: surveys of data collected from experts’ opinions and social media, that is, social networks, salient blogs and major international newspapers’ forums) is going to replace private forecasting in the assessment of how the future will look (i.e. seeing things coming).

This is how socio-economic and geopolitical intelligence will be gathered in the future (Xbox Live among game services targeted by US and UK spy agencies, Guardian, 9 December 2013) and decisions will be made, based on strategic scenarios (The rise of the networked enterprise: Web 2.0 finds its payday, McKinsey.com, December 2010).

Our task is to determine, through crowdsourcing/data mining (scanning the internet to monitor news articles, blogs, forums), current megatrends and micro-trends in the ongoing dialogue between micro decentralization and macro centralization

Most long range forecast reports will be written in English, the language of a globalized planet in which a huge number of middle-class professionals will be asking for goods as well as services enabling them to make effective decisions (e.g. online education, coaching, consultancy).

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