There is constructive activity and there is the destructive…We can start to connect the stars, then, see our constellation, and identify the costs of a consistent pattern of destructive behavior on Washington’s part here, there and everywhere. Specific to the case, the Sino-Russian energy deals cannot possibly be taken as other than long-term responses to the West’s renewal of Cold War hostilities toward Russia and its refusal to countenance China’s emergence. More narrowly, Putin wants an Iran deal to demonstrate Russia’s importance as a global player, yes, but he is not so far from fed up even there. The obvious question is what we are watching as all these events unfold and then coalesce into a single reality. This peculiar moment seems to make this reality clear. Nostalgic for the period of primacy known as the American Century, the U.S. cannot accept its passing. Logically enough, the task becomes essentially destructive of the world as it is aborning — an effort, in the end, to destroy history itself.
Patrick L. Smith, What really happened in Beijing: Putin, Obama, Xi — and the back story the media won’t tell you, Salon, 14 November 2014
The time of world revolution is drawing near. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates call themselves the Islamic State, but then suddenly a fundamentalist Islamic State appears that is directed primarily against them. ISIS has about 10,000 Saudis – they are fundamentalist jihadists from Saudi Arabia. They already say that their prime goal is to topple the rotten and corrupt regime in Saudi Arabia. Ultimately, we are entering a very interesting period. This is not a geopolitical or a global economic period – this is an ideological period. Once again, we are entering the period of ideological wars. Religious wars are one of the most acute forms of ideological war. Ideological wars always last till the end.
Shamil Sultanov, ISIS starts new era in the history of mankind, Pravda, 23 September 2014
The Kremlin published its priorities Monday for an upcoming meeting of the G20, calling for the creation of a supranational reserve currency to be issued by international institutions as part of a reform of the global financial system. The International Monetary Fund should investigate the possible creation of a new reserve currency, widening the list of reserve currencies or using its already existing Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, as a “superreserve currency accepted by the whole of the international community”.
At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency, The Moscow Times, 17 March 2009
The IMF’s membership has been calling on and was expecting the United States to approve the IMF’s 2010 Quota and Governance Reforms by year end…I have now been informed by the U.S. Administration that the reforms are not included in the budget legislation currently before the U.S. Congress. I have expressed my disappointment to the U.S authorities…We will now proceed to discuss alternative options for advancing quota and governance reforms and ensuring that the Fund has adequate resources, starting with an Executive Board meeting in January 2015.
Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, press release 14/568, 12 December 2014
Instead of participating in the creation of a single currency, independent of countries and articulated consciously according to its threefold nature, today’s nation-states risk becoming trapped in a dead-end, characterised by the military assertion of separate currencies and requiring the creation of competing monetary blocs supported by media frenzy, political edicts, and acts of war.
Marc Desaules, A human response to globalisation, 2003, p. 107
We’ve been supporting a proposal by Undesa [UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs] to annually issue special drawing rights [SDRs], which are a form of reserve asset that all countries receive…By the end of next year … we could see the start of a proper international framework which could be fair, transparent and independent of creditors, and lead to rapid resolution of countries’ debts when they are in crisis. The problem is several developed countries are dragging their heels. So many European countries abstained or voted against. The US voted against this proposal. We need to get those countries on board.
Jesse Griffiths, director of Eurodad, as quoted in Developing countries lose $2 for every $1 gained, report says, Guardian, 18 December 2014
Each one of us is different and yet we do share a common humanity.
United we stand, divided we fall.
2015 and 2016 will be remembered a thousand years from now as the beginning of the restructuring of the international economic and geopolitical order, following a perfect storm of debt default, the bursting of real estate and equities bubbles, the demise of the petro-dollar, hyperinflation and hyperdeflation.
The reconfiguration of the European Union institutions; the emergence of the Eurasian Economic Union; the implementation of the Land and Maritime Silk Road projects and of the Transoceanic Canal in Nicaragua; the expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad to the Korean peninsula;the construction of the China-Russia-Canada-United States high speed railway line, of at least two undersea tunnels linking China, Japan and South Koreain the future free trade area, of a high speed rail connecting Thailand to Vietnam, and of Congo’s Gran Inga, the largest hydroelectric project in human history.
These are just some of the highlights of the next quarter century.
The dollar will not be the king of the hill anymore and our world will become multipolar, led by a global governance that, through a reformed Security Council and the establishment of an Economic and Social Security Council, will finally cease to be Western-centric and escape the deadly, ultraconservative bipolar logic of ideologically competing blocs, whether it be China, Islam, Russia, or the emerging economies (Dmitri Trenin, The World’s Future: Bipolar Geoeconomics? Carnegie Moscow Center, 28 October 2014; Multipolar not bipolar world, China Daily, 11 January 2013).
The Old Order, engineered so as to best represent and promote Anglo-American interests (Perpetual War, and Shame, Is Our Policy, Huffington Post, 11 September 2014; How Perpetual War Became U.S. Ideology, the Atlantic, 11 May 2011; When Genocide is Permissible, Times of Israel, 1 August 2014), has run its course and most élites are intimating their unwillingness to go down with the sinking ship.
Europe is seeking a rapprochement with Russia (German Foreign Minister: ‘Crimea Will Remain a Source of Conflict’, Spiegel, 25 November 2014; Die Kanzlerin hat ihre Putin-Strategie geändert, Die Welt, 16 November 2014; Attempts to weaken Russia fraught with unforgivable risk – former Czech president, TASS, 8 January 2015; Italian PM urges revision of attitude to Russia, opposes sanctions, TASS, 18 December 2014; French Leader Urges End to Sanctions Against Russia Over Ukraine, NYT, 5 January 2015; Vladimir Putin to visit Hungary in March, Budapest Beacon, 7 January 2015; Russia, Finmeccanica agree to building new helicopter plant, IHS Jane’s 360, 6 January 2015).
Even many Americans are entertaining a “singular affection” for Putin (Most Admired: Obama, Clinton … and Vladimir Putin?, NBC News, December 30 2014), especially after what happened in Ferguson.
Chirac and de Villepin (France), Schröder, Kohl and Schmidt (Germany), Romano Prodi (Italy) are but some of the many European leaders who have leveled harsh criticisms of the way the Ukraine crisis has been handled by Brussels and Washington (The New York Times doesn’t want you to understand this Vladimir Putin speech, Salon, 7 November 2014; Merkel, Putin talk as G20 debates Ukraine, Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2014).
Merkel and Steinmeier have already blocked Ukraine’s and Georgia’s accession to NATO in 2007 (Georgia and Ukraine split NATO members, NYT, 30 October 2008) and will do it again (Merkel said to reject Ukraine NATO bid, Bloomberg, 26 November 2014).
They are sincere, open and straightforward advocates of peace, diplomacy and cooperation – wtiness the speech delivered by Germany’s foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier at the Ural Federal University in Yekaterinburg on Germans and Russians – past, present, future, a few days ago (9 December 2014).
This is great news for everyone. It means Ostpolitik is alive and kicking.
It also means that there is an important role to play for an active and informed citizenship committed to the aims of cultural diplomacy.
More democratic participation translates into the reinvention of diplomacy for an age in which citizens are empowered and therefore made more responsible in the decision-making process. A new diplomacy, a bottom-up diplomacy involving more transnational cultural exchanges and business partnerships (Dominique de Villepin, The Art of Intervention: Diplomacy and Deployment after Iraq, University of Chicago – 14 November 2014).
In order to pursue the path of mutual understanding and shared prosperity we need more links between people, nations, cultures, enterprises, (truly independent) think tanks.
We need a new Ostpolitik.
…and a new Westpolitik.
Bilateral economic cooperation between Japan and Russia is warming up as well (Abe, Putin Agree to Improve Ties Despite Sanctions, WSJ, 9 November 2014), whereas relationships between Sweden and Israel are at an all-time low (Swedish foreign minister cancels trip to Israel, Times of Israel, 7 January 2015).
This Big Reset could lead to more adaptable, cooperative/mutual, harmonised planetary financial and economic policies in which the seigniorage is shared and the diversity in unity is preserved, provided that each nation sees the others’ points of view and sees itself as the world sees it (Christopher Houghton Budd, “A Single Global Currency. A political or an economic money?”, 2004).
Even Henry Kissinger agrees on this (Henry Kissinger on the Assembly of a New World Order, Wall Street Journal, 29 August 2014):
A world order of states affirming individual dignity and participatory governance, and cooperating internationally in accordance with agreed-upon rules, can be our hope and should be our inspiration.
This New Order will comprise institutions designed to encourage and facilitate cooperation and shared prosperity without dictating which policies a government ought to pursue.
In order to do so, it will have to prove capable of breaking the totalitarian strictures of either/or by embracinga balance ofdiversity and unity, macro-centralization and micro-decentralization, West and East, North and South, masses and élites, local and global, production and resilience, collective responsibility and individual sovereignty, altruism and self-interest, mutual dependence and self-determination.
A human Renaissance of unconstrained inventiveness and creativity will follow (Government Secrecy Orders on Patents Have Stifled More Than 5,000 Inventions, Wired, 16 April 2014; Les réactions nucléaires à basse énergie: demande de brevet US; Japon, Norvège, Italie et Bill Gates, Éco-Énergie à Montréal, 1 January 2015; New technique offers spray-on solar power, University of Toronto News, 5 December 2014).
THE CHALLENGE WE FACE
The argument that strong countries are bound to seek hegemony does not apply to China. This is not in the DNA of this country given our long historical and cultural background. Also China fully understands that we need a peaceful and stable internal and external environment to develop ourselves.
We all to need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap — destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers, or between established powers themselves.
Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations in three aspects.
First is a no confrontational or zero-sum mentality. Second is mutual respect for other’s path of development and cultural heritage. Third, to seek common ground on issues of common interests in pursuit of win-win progress. As long as the major countries follow these principles, no war will break out in the world.
Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China, How The World’s Most Powerful Leader Thinks, World Post, 21 January 2014
It is not unrealistic to imagine a larger configuration of the West emerging after 2025…If the United States does not promote the emergence of an enlarged West, dire consequences could follow…With the EU passive, individual European states, in search of greater commercial opportunities, could then seek their own accommodations with Russia. One can envisage a scenario in which economic self-interest leads Germany or Italy, for example, to develop a special relationship with Russia…The result would be not a new and more vital West but rather a progressively splintering and increasingly pessimistic West. Such a disunited West would not be able to compete with China for global relevance.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Balancing the East, Upgrading the West. U.S. Grand Strategy in an Age of Upheaval, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2012
We are headed for a major crash in 2015 (Doom and gloom: 2015 global recession warning from financial seers of the century, Independent, 24 July 2014; The case for a global recession in 2015, Fortune, 28 October 2015; The US market is trading like it’s 1999: Ablin, CNBC, 2 January 2015; No Shortage of Crisis Forecasts for 2015, The view from our White House, 3 January 2015; What to Make of the BIS and IMF Warnings, The view from our White House, 16 December 2014), due to greed, imbalances in the markets, the abuse of quantitative easing (exporting U.S. debt and inflation), the unaccountability of financial institutions, the arbitrary manipulation of international rules to enforce the so-called Washington Consensus, the unsustainable increase of U.S. and world debt (US Debt Soars By $100 Billion On Last Day Of 2014, Hits Record $18.14 Trillion, ZeroHedge, 2 January 2015), and the heavily skewed risk assessment of U.S. rating agencies.
The bursting of gigantic private debt, corporate debt and sovereign debt bubbles will bring about a corrective deflation (and hyperinflation in the United States) and a worldwide “revolution” (The time of world revolution is drawing near (social forecasting: winter 2014-2015), FuturAbles, 20 November 2014), namely a transition from a petrodollar based order which is responsible for the overvaluation of the dollar and the undervaluation of the currencies of the emerging economiesto a multilateral SDR (i.e. a shared sovereign unit of account) based system.
This move will put an end to the unacceptable privileges ensuring that
Those who control credit control the economy, those who control risk control the credit and those who control information control risk
Dominique de Villepin, The Global Debt Crisis – What’s at Stake? 24 October 2013.
The architecture of the global economy will be thoroughly tested and found wanting.
A new, multilateral, post-hegemonic, trust-based, far-sighted architecture, focused on economic development and financial stability as “Common Goods of Humanity”, will take its place, through a new Bretton Woods agreement (signed in Hong Kong or Singapore?), lest globalization falter and collapse into autarchic, ethnocentric regions (see Carl Schmitt’s Großraumwirtschaften).
We must always bear in mind that economic instability favours speculators, whereas economic stability favours the people.
This new order will make official the adoption of the Special Drawing Rights – a counting unit calculated on the composed exchange rates of a basket of major currencies – as the “principal reserve asset in the international monetary system” (IMF Article XXII).
Its value will be anchored to the real world economy, being no longer at the mercy of private greed (Warren Coats, A global currency for a global economy: a real SDR currency board, 18 November 2014; (China currency push takes aim at dollar, USA Today, 7 October 2014; Yuan Has Real Shot at IMF Blessing on Reserve Status, Bloomberg, 11 December 2014), and paving the way for a supranational currency (Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pulls new world currency from his pocket, Telegraph, 10 July 2009) and massive investments in infrastructures and commerce:
A financially backed and worldwide crowd funding of infrastructures and research projects that will change the face of our civilization.
Dominique de Villepin, The Global Debt Crisis – What’s at Stake? 24 October 2013
All in all, a total collapse of the global economy is not a likely scenario of the Great Transformation.
That would defeat the purpose of it and it seems clear to me that BRICS actions are meant to upgrade to a new system without triggering a war.
Even though such a war could be engineered to protect a rigged game that has been killing the world real economy (Thierry Meyssan, Obama, financial war and the elimination of DSK, Voltairenet.org, 28 May 2011; Ukraine preparing for war despite peace talks, Deutsche Welle, 6 January 2015; 15 ways things will get worse in 2015, Washington Post, 1 January 2015), I still maintain that the transition is not wont to be disorderly, because most people on this planet are fed up with market manipulations, violations of civil rights, mass disinformation and misinformation, and wars (Support for Iraq Military Action Low in Historical Context, Gallup, 25 June 2014; Crisis and recovery: the threat to western elites, Prospect, 3 September 2014).
The resurrection of anti-Soviet rhetoric of the fight against the “Red Menace” is in vain (Mikhail Gorbachev, A New Cold War Order? Prospect, 5 January 2014). Because of the dedollarization of the world U.S. military budget will have to be scaled back in a major way.
In my opinion, forces opposed to authoritarianism are now numerically strong enough that they can hardly be crushed.
Humankind will rise up and demand justice and a humanizing Social Contract, for instance, as I already mentioned, by establishing an Economic Security Council ensuring that all people have the opportunity to earn a fair living (cf. Carlsson, Ingvar and Shridath Ramphal, Our Global Neighbourhood, The Report of the Commission on Global Governance,November 1994, p.111; Merkel and Sarkozy call for global ‘economic security’ council, EUObserver, 9 January 2009).
Each country and region will face a different challenge, depending on the health of the economy, the abundance of natural resources, the trading networks. For a while, as a result of ongoing imbalances produced by an unaccountable financial systems all too often betting against entrepreneurs and nations instead of assisting them, falling prices will be widespread (Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears, WSJ, 16 October 2014; Europe’s plunge into deflation is coming, Business Insider, 28 November 2014). Debt remains the chief problem, though.
Cost deflation caused by cost reduction (energy), increased efficiency (automation) and “revaluation” of unreasonably priced assets (bubble bursting) is a balancing dynamic. It could lead to a growing demand for quality products. I see nothing wrong with that: zero inflation or even a slight deflation would be desirable, provided that the ensuing exacerbation of the global debt crisis be handled with a jubilee of the unsustainable, odious debt, restoring the overall equilibrium of the system (Michael Hudson, Thinking the Unthinkable: A Debt Write Down, and Jubilee Year Clean Slate, Global Research, 26 November 2013).
After all, capitalism was meant to reduce costs in order to increase profits and affordability, not to inflate debt bubbles (art, real estate, stock market, Facebook, Alibaba, etc.) to please a very few price manipulators.
Let me once again stress the main issue, here.
In the very near future we will witness the adoption of a universal unit of account and world reserve currency which will have to leave room for the diversity of economies and currencies, for mutuality, for global equilibrium, shared seignorage and shared sovereignty, resting on the understanding that in a globalized system of close interdependencies my neighbour’s welfare is my one welfare (enlarged and higher egoism vs. sociopathic Social Darwinism): we share instead of stealing and waging financial wars, we pursue price stability (i..e a balance between inflation and deflation), we seek a broad consensus instead of arbitrarily enforcing our will, we decentralize as we centralize (Christina McRorie, The Emptiness of Modern Economics: Why the Dismal Science Needs a Richer Moral Anthropology, The Hedgehog Review, 16.3, Fall 2014).
In a way, this would be the revival of the so-called “American System”, applied to the whole planet (The American System, Daily Kos, 2 December 2012).
This radical change will be resisted by misguided and easily manipulated patriots who, in total good faith, will see evil where there is none or very little, and vice versa.
In the United States opposition might well take a violent turn for the worse (Poll: Armed Revolution Could Be Necessary, 29 Percent Of Voters Believe, Huffington Post, 2 May 2013).
This will be all to the advantage of those who believe that they are winning the class war: There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning (Warren Buffet, In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class Is Winning, NYT, 26 November 2006).
I would not rule out a descent into a police state for both the United States (America’s Budding Police State, Bloomberg, 25 November 2014; Rise of the American police state: 9 disgraceful events that paved the way, Salon, 28 October 2014) and the United Kingdom (Chief constable warns against ‘drift towards police state’, Guardian, 5 December 2014).
THE OLD WORLD ORDER
Credit default swaps (CDS) have been used as an instrument of terror, blackmailing and plundering of nation-states, city councils and even banks, to the benefit of the City of London and Wall Street and to mask the real state of the US and UK economies and their financial establishment (Ben Stein almost lets out the Big Secret, Daily Kos, 23 September 2008; Betting on Default: Hedge Funds Speculate on Greek Debt, Spiegel, 1 February 2010; Euro-Parliament bans ‘naked’ credit default swaps, EUbusiness, 16 November 2011; Ha-Joon Chang, This is no recovery, this is a bubble – and it will burst, 24 February 2014; Dimitri Papadimitriou, The coming ‘tsunami of debt’ and financial crisis in America, Guardian, 15 June 2014).
Through the Chiang Mai Initiative, China is leading an Asian movement opposing (mostly Western) currency manipulators usurping political power from the elected leaders of emerging countries (Soros Calls Mahathir A ‘Menace’ To Malaysia, NYT, 22 September 1997; Soros is back – after 15 years, The Star, 28 September 2012; India’s rupee hits another record low against US dollar, Guardian, 21 August 2013; Those looking to profit from plunging ruble will be ‘dealt with’ – Putin, RT, 4 December 2014).
Acting in concert with Moscow, Beijing is concluding strategic trade and currency swap agreements and signing countless energy and investment deals. It is also developing a similar strategy in Latin America, granting a respite to Argentina in its ongoing struggle with Wall Street hedge funds (Chinese relief for Argentina: central banks activate currency-swap, MercoPress, 31 October 2014; Argentina Path to Singer Bond Deal Opens as Legal Clause Expires, Bloomberg, 31 December 2014).
Africa will also benefit from the newly established BRICS development bank (The Brics development bank can release Africa from World Bank tyranny, Guardian, 17 July 2014).
Meanwhile, Russia is setting up a parallel electronic currency system, bypassing the US-surveilled Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) (‘Follow the Money’: NSA Spies on International Payments, Spiegel, 15 September 2013), in one of the most important steps towards a multipolar (multibanking) world.
There is a subterranean war raging between the European Central Bank and the City of London concerning the supervision of British banks on euro-denominated equities and derivatives (CDS) (U.K. to Fight for City of London in Court Clash With ECB, Bloomberg, 8 July 2014), while the anti-Putin front is not as united and firm as Anglo-American media expect the international community to believe (Merkel, Putin talk as G20 debates Ukraine, Deutsche Welle, 15 November 2014; France’s Hollande meets Russia’s Putin in surprise stopover at Moscow airport, Euronews, 6 December 2014).
It seems clear that various power blocks are fighting for supremacy (and for the physical control of gold reserves) and this will most likely lead to a NATO breakup (Germany’s Choice: Will It Be America or Russia?, Spiegel, 10 July 2014):
Anyone who believes that forcing Russia economically to its knees will lead to more security in Europe is wrong.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister (NYT, 28 December 2014)
I suggest these are hints that the Atlantic Pact is facing its most severe, perhaps fatal, crisis and ordinary citizens of the United States and the United Kingdom will pay the highest price.
In spite of the real estate, stock options and derivative bubbles inflating the economy (According To Many Famous Investors, U.S. Stocks Are In A Bubble, Forbes, 28 January 2014), nearly 15% of the American population is on food stamps.
American students owe $ 1.2 trillion in college debt.
Most new jobs are low-wage, part time.
Official statistics are anyhow misleading and paint a rosier picture than the reality.
The Anglo-American financial system (i.e. Five Eyes) is truly living on borrowed time and is coming apart at the seams as we speak:
When the superpower has to telephone allies to assure them it will not torture their citizens, when it has to fend off prosecution in international courts for its criminal conduct, when it comes down to depending on everyone else’s fear of retribution to get things done, well, the superpower has reached a bad place…The suppression of the truth about Ukraine is one of the most complete news blackouts I can remember. The biggest Western military build-up in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe since World War II is blacked out. Washington’s secret aid to Kiev and its neo-Nazi brigades responsible for war crimes against the population of eastern Ukraine is blacked out. Evidence that contradicts propaganda that Russia was responsible for the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner is blacked out.
Patrick L. Smith, Beyond the foreign policy lies: Our compliant media and the truth about American exceptionalism, Salon, 1 January 2015
In order to retain their status, Washington and London need to persuade the Saudis, the Germans and the Chinese that they are still the best bet.
They could do that by:
(a) neutralizing Putin’s challenge (i.e. a multi-polar world order with rules established by multiple centres of power) by putting a wedge between Russia and the EU (this is the ultimate goal of the Ukrainian civil war);
(b) suppressing any genuine Arab and Mediterranean renaissance (e.g. ISIS, “humanitarian” bombing and military coups);
(c) keeping the EU on a short leash and the euro in 2nd place (Iraq nets handsome profit by dumping dollar for euro, Guardian, 16 February 2003; How the US dollar destabilises the world, South China Morning Post, 3 march 2014);
(d) vetoing a comprehensive reform of global institutions (The US Congress is unlikely to pass the required legislation to enact the 2010 IMF Code of Reforms);
(e) retaining their control of the energy market (a further struggle between centralization and decentralization);
(f) preventing the rise of Africa;
(g) halting all efforts to create functioning publicly owned development banks, multiple complementary and regional currencies (Faircoin as the First Global Commons Currency?; Dreamcoin: Africa’s New Hope) and all that is required to change the way money works, in the direction of mutual aid (Argentina looks to China and Russia for support, Financial Times, 10 July 2014; Chile seeks more Chinese investment, South China Morning Post, 22 September, 2014; Ecuador to Develop Its Own Satellite with Chinese Help, Latin America Herald Tribune, 18 September 2014);
(h) ignoring proposal for decentralized autonomy (devolution) and federalism at the lowest effective level;
(i) appeasing those indebted nations that know full well that they have been blackmailed, exploited and cheated by the Atlantic Alliance (Gladio A & B; Five Eyes) and now demand debt relief and restructuring;
(j) and, finally, keeping Western public opinion in the dark about all this, as well as convinced that BRICS countries are the real aggressors.
No small feat, if you ask me. They are unlikely to succeed. They must be desperate, by now, for they have bitten off more than they can chew.
THE NEW WORLD ORDER
The staggering intensity of Western media putinophobia (Demonizing Putin Endangers America’s Security, The Nation, 16 September 2013; Russia, Cuba and the truth about Putin the U.S. media doesn’t want you to know, Salon, 24 December 2015) shows that things are coming to a head.
The BRICS development bank (to take over from the IMF), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and several other agreements are preparing the ground for a scenario in which, under the rule of law, the Anglo-American zombie economy (The Zombie System: How Capitalism Has Gone Off the Rails, Spiegel, 23 October 2014) is allowed to collapse without destroying the world economy.
Hopefully, but this mainly depends on the degree of awakening and moral courage of the masses, the new system will be governed by the same self-limiting elites responsible for the increasing affluence of the populations of Russia, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, India, Iran, Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, etc. (China Wages Seen Jumping in 2014 Amid Shift to Services, Bloomberg, 6 January 2014).
This is good, for there is no dignity, democracy and freedom without employment, economic security, and rule of law (Secret tapes pull back curtain on Goldman Sachs, BBC, 29 September 2014).
That said, it is obvious that these nations, like our own, have a long way to go before we can talk about true peace, true dignity, true democracy, and true cooperation. However, a new order in which nations and peoples are no longer controlled by debt (Record world debt could trigger new financial crisis, Geneva report warns, Guardian, 29 September 2014) and are rather freed by prosperity (Africa’s Emerging Market Boom, Forbes, 10 March 2014), is a good start.
Gold is an effective brake on credit creation and the global financial reset will thus imply a much higher price for gold, but the emerging multilateral financial system will not be centred on a rigid gold standard.
Gold can function as both a spur and a break for credit creation on condition that it is allowed to freely float in value against all currencies.
We will witness the revival of arrangements existing prior to Nixon’s unilateral abrogation of the Bretton Woods Accord (1971) and the imposition of the petrodollar dictatorship (1974).
I doubt, though, that it will be a gold/silver backed renminbi replacing the US dollaras themoney supply for the global economy during the 21st century (A Chinese Gold Standard?, New York Times, 24 July 2014), because that would only play into the hands of those warning against a Chinese regional and global threat during an hopefully peaceful power transition.It would be a self-defeating geopolitical act needlessly undermining Chinese efforts to promote confidence building.
The new architecture will instead presumably rely on a fiat component for flexibility (the weighted average of the major currencies) and a gold (and silver?) component for stability (China eyes SDR as global currency, China Daily, 23 March 2009).
In the forthcoming global financial reset the markets will determine the SDR basket composition (that is, thevalue/weight of the participant currencies) based on the amount of gold (established through independent, planetary-wide audits) held as reserve. In preparation for the moment in which China will officially announce their gold reserves, Europeans are seeking ways to repatriate their gold (Swiss, French call to bring home gold reserves as Dutch move 122 tons out of US, RT, 28 November 2014; Gold Repatriation and The Monetary Crisis: Austria, Belgium and The Netherlands Want Their Gold Back, Global Research, 17 December 2014).
We could then finally see the rise of a multipolar order with a monetary lingua franca (a shared seignorage) and common reference point for the whole of humankind after the end of the militarized dollar hegemony, the demise of beggar-thy-neighbour policies and the rapprochement between “Western” and “Islamic” finances as well as capitalism and socialism (After the Crash – rules will be set by those who control the gold, FuturAbles, 20 December 2014).
GOLD, SILVER, OIL
Of the economy it is poisonous. In it it is healing…Its value rises as the economy shrinks (circulation slows); decreases as trade expands (circulation speeds up)…By its very nature gold mediates between infinite expansion and strong cohesion, between dispersion and hardening…back and forth between extremes…Whether the SDRs do anything toward ending the massive flows of speculative capital that make world finance so unstable is another matter, however – one that depends on men developing a confidence in them equal to that inspired by gold.
Christopher Houghton Budd, “Of wheat and gold”, 1988
The binary, black-and-white mindset imposed through a renewed cold war hysteria (Of dragons, eagles and bears…and the rise of a new world order, FuturAbles, 7 July 2014) has been employed to mislead Europeans into believing that, unless they strengthen their ties with the Atlantic Pact – turning a blind eye to illegal wars, drone killings, CIA rendition flights and torture, mass surveillance and mass incarceration, Guantánamo, commodities markets rigging, corporations-friendly free trade agreements, private debt-fueled binges, moribund banking system, repeated real estate bubbles, etc. –, their fate will be sealed (Europe Torn Apart in the Asian Century? Carnegie Europe, 1 July 2014; China Steps In as World’s New Bank, Bloomberg, 25 December 2014).
Whether the U.S. establishment likes it or not, emerging economies are about to decouple from the dollar because they can no longer tolerate the permanent destabilisation of the international financial system caused by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Anglo-American banking interests (see Nicholas Shaxson, Treasure Islands: Tax Havens and the Men who Stole the World, 2011; British Lord fell for $15 trillion federal reserve scam, Daily Caller, 25 February 2012; Banks Launder Billions of Illegal Cartel Money While Snubbing Legal Marijuana Businesses, Huffington Post, 17 January 2014).
Ever since the 2007-2008 crash, foreseeing an even bigger (much much bigger) market fall-out (Five reasons why markets are heading for a crash, Telegraph, 2 December 2014), emerging countries have been hoarding devalued oil, gold and silver – priced in US dollars –, as a strategic reserve.
Russia is selling oil for dollars and, with those dollars, is immediately buying gold, divesting itself of dollars/U.S. government bonds. Together with China, it is getting ready to launch a new global financial paradigm, with an alternative payment systems.
Rules are set by those who control the gold:
What is new is it’s not just Russia snapping up gold. China, India, and many other emerging economies have also been snapping up gold lately, says Ashish Bhatia, a director at the World Gold Council. He says this is a big sea change in the gold market. Bhatia says up until a few years ago, central banks were selling their gold assets.
Russia, China, India Central Banks Buying More Gold as Oil Prices Drop, MetalMiner, 15 December 2014
Such a moment would seem ripe for Russia and Iran to begin a gradual challenge to Saudi’s leadership of the OPEC cartel and to the dollar-denominated energy system, if enough OPEC members and other producers are prepared to rebel. Iran has been lobbying hard in this direction.
Non-Dollar Trading Is Killing the Petrodollar — And the Foundation of U.S.-Saudi Policy in the Middle East, Huffington Post, 2 December 2014
Using SWIFT in this way [as a weapon – author’s note] could lead to the creation of a rival. Russia’s central bank is pre-emptively working to develop an alternative network; China has also shown interest in shifting the world’s financial centre of gravity eastward. Earlier this year it co-founded a BRICS development bank with Russia, India, China and South Africa, and its UnionPay service, set up in 2002, has loosened the stranglehold of MasterCard and Visa on card payments. If China and other countries that feared being subjected to future Western sanctions joined the Russian venture, it might become an alternative to SWIFT
The pros and cons of a SWIFT response, Economist, 22 November 2014
It’s all part of the shifting of power from West to East (Will this be the ‘Asian century’? Guardian, 18 April 2012; ‘Asian century’ will dominate global financial markets, Financial Times, 7 April 2014; Armenia Joins Eurasian Economic Union, as Kyrgyzstan Edges Closer to Membership, Astana Times, 13 October 2014).
China is on its way back to being the dominant world power (cf. Jean-Joseph Boillot et Stanislas Dembinski, Chindiafrique. La Chine, l’Inde et l’Afrique feront le monde de demain, Odile Jacob, 2013) and the China Business Forum for Chinese and German-speaking decision-makers and experts, to be held in Vienna in June 2015, is poised to become an annual event.
We are heading for a multiple global reserve currency system in an English-speaking world dominated by the Chinese economy (Xinhua Insight: Time to seize the opportunity of China’s “new normal”, Shanghai Daily, 14 December 2014; Romano Prodi, La Cina in Europa: non solo acquisti ma investimenti e collaborazioni scientifiche, The People’s Daily, 2 December 2014; We are all connected. Then and now, WazArs, 16 November 2014; For a New World Order to live well, one in which WazArs would flourish, WazArs, 2 October 2014).
Speculation on oil prices (Stakes are high as US plays the oil card against Iran and Russia, Guardian, 9 November 2014; Ruble, Oil, Shale Gas, Derivatives and American Hegemony, The Vineyard of the Saker, 23 December 2014) may well bring down the entire Western financial architecture sooner than the Russian (or Iranian, Venezuelan) economy:
There is unlikely to be a happy ending to falling oil prices for highly leveraged US energy companies, and it is wrong to assume that there is no interconnectedness between the companies, banks, hedge funds and other organisations that trade derivatives based on the oil price. One should also not assume that losses in one sector and among one group of counterparties can be contained and contagion can be so easily prevented.
A real danger to global financial system from oil price collapse, Financial Times, 18 December 2014
China is already, and by a long way, the first gold producer in the world. The West (its 0.1 percent) will no longer be able to price gold for the rest of humanity.
Last year, India has imported over 7,000 metric tonnes of silver, dropping another important hint on where to invest to reclaim and reassert one’s real sovereignty.
We must bear in mind, though, that the only true wealth is not oil, gold or even energy.
It is human creative and organized activity, our capacity for thinking imaginatively and effectively, for looking at things in new ways and finding ingenious solutions instead of reacting mechanically to the same stimuli.
We are intrinsically worthy because we are unpredictable: no one can tell what we can accomplish. Our potential remains indeterminate. In this lies our dignity as human beings and this is also why dismantling the anti-creative system in which we are forced to lead seldom actualized and often unexamined lives is imperative (From a sociopathic civilisation to a socio-therapeutic civilisation, WazArs, 15 October 2014).
Gold is a mediator and a balancer only when people and economies are not possessed by it.
9-10 JULY 2015: A POSSIBLE MILESTONE?
With rich experience in infrastructure building and manufacturing, China is ready to contribute to India’s development in these areas. India is advanced in IT and pharmaceutical industries, and Indian companies are welcome to seek business opportunities in the Chinese market. The combination of the “world’s factory” and the “world’s back office” will produce the most competitive production base and the most attractive consumer market.
As the two engines of the Asian economy, we need to become cooperation partners spearheading growth. I believe that the combination of China’s energy plus India’s wisdom will release massive potential. We need to jointly develop the BCIM Economic Corridor, discuss the initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and lead the sustainable growth of the Asian economy.
As two important forces in a world that moves towards multipolarity, we need to become global partners having strategic coordination. According to Prime Minister Modi, China and India are “two bodies, one spirit.” I appreciate this comment. Despite their distinctive features, the “Chinese Dragon” and the “Indian Elephant” both cherish peace, equity and justice. We need to work together to carry forward the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (the Panchsheel), make the international order more fair and reasonable, and improve the mechanism and rules of international governance, so as to make them better respond to the trend of the times and meet the common needs of the international community.
Xi Jinping, Towards an Asian century of prosperity, The Hindu Times, 17 September 2014)
Saddam Hussein and Muhammar Gaddafi, leaders of two oil-producing nations (no more despotic than the Saudi monarchy), made a fatal mistake when they announced that they were prepared to ditch the petrodollar (Foreign Exchange: Saddam Turns His Back on Greenbacks, Time, 13 November 2000; Saving the world economy from Gaddafi, RT, 5 May 2011). Basharal-Assad shifted the Syrian pound away from the dollar, pegging it to the SDRs (Syria to End Dollar Peg, 2nd Arab Country in 2 Weeks, Bloomberg, 4 June 2007). Most interestingly, ISIS isgoing down more or less the same path, possibly due to the massive presence of former Libyan and Iraqi officers among its ranks (Iraqi dealers confirm ISIS hoarding gold, precious metals to issue currency – report, RT, 21 November 2014).
The emerging powers have taken due heed of these precedents and are acting far more cautiously (please remember that “still waters run deep”, though).
A watershed moment for our civilization will presumably take place during the next BRICS (21 per cent of global GDP and 20 per cent of trade. See also What the BRICS are Building, The Harvard Crimson, 1 September 2014) and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) summit, to be held in Ufa (Russia) on 9-10 July 2015.
It would be an excellent venue for a historical announcement concerning a new international, multilateral, monetary arrangement, with a mix of fiat (the spur) and gold-backing (the brake) as a balancing mechanism allowing the money supply (M1) to grow in sync with the growth of value creation in ever more inventive and industrious societies.
A multilateral world based on consensus building, many development banks and fungible currencies cannot be worse than the “Washington Consensus” and the ongoing financial war (Stefania Vitali, James B. Glattfelder, Stefano Battiston, The network of global corporate control, ETH Zurich, 19 September 2011; Four banks acquitted of Milan derivatives fraud, BBC, 7 March 2014; Goldman Secret Greece Loan Shows Two Sinners as Client Unravels, Bloomberg, 6 March 2012).
Economic growth on its own does not lead to the realization of social rights and living well. The horizon of equality calls for the distribution of wealth, economic and political empowerment of the poor, the excluded, and the marginalized. It calls for strengthening communities and building societies with solidarity, not exclusive societies based on the accumulation of wealth or governed by the need to make money, avarice, and the grasping nature of the market…It is only through the recovery of control of natural resources that we will be able to garner greater benefits for our peoples, in particular to eliminate poverty, to invest in economic diversification, industrialization, and social programs…It is vital to strike a balance between the rights of Mother Earth, the right to development, the rights of indigenous peoples, and social, economic, and cultural rights – as well as the right of the poor to emerge from poverty…Declaring the human right to water means that it cannot be privatized. Water is life. It cannot be the subject of profit or commerce. In the same way, to resolve major social inequalities basic services such as water, electricity, telecommunications, and basic sanitation, as well as education and health, must be human rights…We must profoundly change the exclusionary structures of financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. This measure should be part of the transformation of the world financial architecture. These organizations cannot be governed only by developed countries, which through clever financial strategies blackmail and oppress developing countries, especially the poorest. This is what we call eradicating financial colonialism in the world…If there had not been a financial crisis, there would be 413 million less hungry people in the world today. It is unthinkable to eradicate hunger and poverty without changing the international financial architecture…With the cost of war spent elsewhere, humanity could overcome many of the problems facing it today such as Ebola, tuberculosis, and other diseases…The summit of states and heads of governments of the G-77 and China adopted a declaration entitled ‘For a New World Order To Live Well’. This ratifies the principles of unity, complementarity, and solidarity, as well as the building of a new world order which would establish a fairer, more democratic system to benefit our peoples…Brothers and sisters, the empire of finance, the empire of markets, the empire of the arms industry, must all fall to give way to the wisdom of life, and life in peace and harmony”.
Evo Morales, Bolivia’s President, speech delivered at the 69th Session of the United Nations General Assembly
…We believe in the necessity of building a new UN for peace, for a new world. Where there are no empires who wish to go back to a unipolar world. This is urgent for the world…There is another world where we can all talk, think, and decide. Decide on our countries’ destiny, on peace; there’s a new regionalism that has come up….Recently, there was a very interesting meeting that will impact over the coming years between the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), with new mechanisms for development, and UNASUR in Brasilia. We decided to share experience between the BRICS bank which had just been announced, and the new Bank of the South, the new financial infrastructure from this emerging world, from new regionalisms. Latin America is incorporating itself in new regionalisms with enthusiasm. Based on the experience, there are new ways to establish a roadmap for re-foundation of the UN”.
Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, United Nations General Assembly, September 24, 2014
I would rather disagree with a case Obama made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.
Vladimir Putin, A Plea for Caution From Russia, New York Times, 11 September 2013
Aggiornamenti/updates > google+