The ISIS crisis: an attempted regime change too far

The ISIS crisis: an attempted regime change too far

Isis is a real threat to the Iraqi people and the region. Iran and Hezbollah are even a greater threat to our region and the western world…Two things should be avoided. One you don’t want to see Iraq controlled or occupied by Isis. Two you don’t want to see Iraq controlled or hegemonised by Iran, because clearly there is an attempt by Iran to create an Iranian Shia axis stretching from Iran through Iraq [to] Syria [and] … Lebanon

Yuval Steinitz, Israel international relations minister Yuval Steinitz (BBC4)

Obama will soon have to decide to either stand up to the still influential neocons as well as hawks in his own administration and seek help from Russia and Iran to resolve conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere — or join the neocon warpath against Russia, Iran and Syria. The first option would mean breaking with old allies, including the Saudi monarchy and Israel’s Likud government, and rejecting their view that Iran and the so-called “Shiite crescent” from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut represent the greatest threat to U.S. and their own interests in the Middle East.

Robert Parry,“Obama at a Crossroad of War or Peace”, June 18, 2014

We discard a whole generation to maintain an economic system that no longer endures, a system that to survive has to make war, as the big empires have always done. But since we cannot wage the Third World War, we make regional wars, and what does that mean? That we make and sell arms. And with that the balance sheets of the idolatrous economies — the big world economies that sacrifice man at the feet of the idol of money — are obviously cleaned up.

Pope Francis, June 13, 2014

There are two divergent points of view dominating different parts of the world. That is true enough. And they are represented loosely in the public mind as “Russia and the Communists”, and “America”. Now the only hope for the future, Victoria, lies in peace, in production, in constructive activities, and not destructive ones. Therefore, everything depends on those who hold those two divergent view points, either agreeing to differ and each contenting themselves with their respective spheres of activity or else finding a mutual basis for agreement or at least toleration. Instead of that, the opposite is happening. A wedge is being driven in the whole time to force two mutually suspicious groups farther and farther apart. Certain things lead one or two people to believe that this activity comes for a third party or group working undercover and so far absolutely unsuspected by the world at large. Whenever there is a chance of agreement being reached or any sign of dispersal of suspicion some incident occurs to plunge one side back in distrust or the other side into definite hysterical fear. These things are not accidents, Victoria. They are deliberately produced for a calculated effect.

Agatha Christie, “They Came to Baghdad

Iraq (OPEC’s second-biggest crude producer) is 60% Shia, 20% Sunni and 20% Kurdish. Some claim that it is a colonial invention and that there must eventually be three “Iraqi” countries: one for Kurds, one for Sunnis and one for Shiites. It’s a bit like saying that there is no such thing as Switzerland (or South Tyrol), that Indian Muslims cannot live side by side with Indian Hindus, that Mormons should have their own state, or that Arab citizens of Israel (21% of the population) do not or ought not to exist.

People have lived together for centuries and federalism is usually admirably efficient in responding to antagonistic claims.

Conversely, it appears as though separatism (read tribalism) is encouraged on “humanitarian” grounds when it favours certain transnational agendas (e.g. Yugoslavia) and strictly opposed when it is perceived as detrimental to those very same agendas (e.g. Shi’a Arabs in Saudi Arabia).

Narcissistic self-segregation and sectarian cantonisation are a recipe for disaster (see Bosnia) as well as a suitable divide-and-conquer strategy for demagogues and aspiring warlords.

Up until the invasion, when Iraq was still a secular country and corruption was not as endemic as it is now, Sunni, Shi’as, Kurds and Christians intermarried and fought together against the Iranians and Western armies. Three separate, smaller nations cannot accomplish what a large one can and will be at the mercy of more powerful countries and bullying corporations. Separating Sudan into South Sudan and Sudan has not solved their problems. If anything, it has resulted into more violence.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Libya, Mali, Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, Vietnam, Iraq: destabilized countries that are resource-rich or, alternatively, are located along strategic energy trade routes. It is no accident. Religion is a fig leaf justifying someone’s power (and energy) grabbing, the desperate propping up of the moribund petrodollar as the world reserve currency and the clinging to a debt-based economic structure. This ISIS plan – which is seemingly meant to unleash a sectarian war as a trigger for another world war –, is presumably the result of rash decisions and will fail disastrously for a number of reasons:

(a) Most Sunni Iraqis are likely to back the Shia-majority government and the cooperation between the Iraqi Shia and Iranian Shia will be strengthened;

(b) Obama has no intention of getting involved in this. He is planning to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan by 2016. He was (secretly) pleased when the British MPs voted against a military action against Syria. He has approved the IMF reform that would mark the end of the dollar as a world reserve currency (as it occurred to the pound after Bretton Woods, in 1944). He sponsors a two-state solution for the Palestinians and has condemned the Israeli occupation and he is fundamentally in agreement with Putin on crucial international issues.

(c) Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters are far from reliable instruments for an ambitious geopolitical strategy (pipeline corridors): this operation could easily backfire on its sponsors, starting a wildfire that will gradually move towards Riyadh, Amman or even Ankara and Jerusalem.

(d) Aside from Australia and Canada, Western finances are in a very bad shape;

e) Arab Gulf states are making preparations for what will come next – hint: SDRs as the global reserve currency, the introduction of a regional dinar as a temporary solution, prior to the shift to the new multilateral, highly centralized SDRs order (Problem – Reaction – Solution), and the end of OPEC;

f) The IMF has threatened to remove US veto power, should republicans congressmen continue to block the reform;

g) China, as the biggest purchaser of Iraqi oil, cannot afford to let the country slide into chaos


SEE ALSO For a New World Order to live well

About stefano fait

Social forecaster/horizon scanner, entrepreneur, Arts and Culture reporter for "Trentino" & "Alto Adige", social media & community manager, professional translator, editor-in-chief of, peer reviewer and contributor for Routledge, Palgrave Macmillan, University of British Columbia Press, IGI Global, Infobase Publishing, M.E. Sharpe, Congressional Quarterly Press, Greenwood Press. Laurea in Political Science – University of Bologna (2000). Ph.D. in Social Anthropology – University of St. Andrews (2004). Co-author of “Contro i miti etnici. Alla ricerca di un Alto Adige diverso” (2010)

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